Heavy Vehicle Crash Rate Analysis: a Comparison of Heterogeneity Methods Using Idaho Crash Data

Studies investigating crash rates by roadway classification are few and far between and even more so if extended to focus on heavy vehicles. This study explores and compares two advanced econometric methods, random-parameter Tobit regression and latent class Tobit regression, to determine contributing factors for heavy vehicle crashes per million-vehicle-miles-traveled while accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity present in crash data. The increasing crash rates in Idaho, crash proportion by roadway classification, and available data make for an ideal case study. Empirical results show that although the random-parameter Tobit regression model provides better insight into heavy vehicle crash rates than the fixed-parameter approach, the latent class Tobit regression model is the preferred methodology for the given dataset. Traffic volumes, roadway characteristics, and traffic control devices were among the variables found to be statistically significant. Results from this study provide an alternate framework to account for heterogeneity, while identifying key factors by roadway classification that influence heavy vehicle crash rates. The illustrated framework and analysis by roadway classification can provide guidance to transportation agencies and policy makers, and prompt future studies to include a latent class analysis and/or analysis by road classification.